Three Things I'm Watching for in Tonight's Address
I'll watch the State of the Union so you don't have to
Welcome back.
Watching the news is tough. I’ve argued in this newsletter that it’s our civic duty to stay engaged, but in the words of a subscriber, “a man has to sleep at night.” It’s true.
Two things hit me especially hard in the last few days:
The Trump/Vance/Zelenskyy debacle. The whole thing was devastating, but the gut-punch for me was realizing that when world powers negotiate peace for Ukraine, the talks will be between Europe on one side and America standing with the Russian invaders on the other. At least that’s how it looks for now.
Trump’s post today announcing a crackdown on “illegal” protests on campuses, including cutting off funds for colleges that allow “illegal” protests, jailing US students who participate in them, and deporting international participants. This is real soldiers-on-campus stuff, and it should terrify you.
That’s where we are as Trump heads into his first State of the Union/Joint Address to Congress in a few hours. It’ll mostly be bluster and bombast, but here are three things I’ll be curious to see if we hear:
What’s the Argument That Anyone is Better Off?
Seriously. Does MAGA have an argument that all of this is actually good for anyone?
The Midterm elections will be here before you know it. Republicans have tied themselves to Trump, and they’ll have to run for reelection on his record. Democrats will have to rebut that record.
Tonight is our first preview of next fall’s campaign ads.
So what’s the argument anyone is better off than a year ago? Prices aren’t down, the market isn’t up, and the world isn’t safer. How does MAGA sell it? Does the argument resonate with everyday voters? Is the Democratic response coherent at all?
Will He Mention Elections?
The always-excellent Marc Elias over at Democracy Docket recently surfaced the transcript of Trump’s speech to governors and uncovered what might be the four-part plan for where Trump wants to take the nation’s elections:
Proof of Citizenship required for all voters
Photo ID required for all voters
Paper ballots only (no electronic voting equipment)
One-day voting (no early voting, no vote-by-mail)
Entire books could be devoted to what’s wrong with this: it would disenfranchise tens of millions of Americans. Black, Brown, and young voters would be especially hard hit. Election results would take more time, be less trustworthy, and running elections would cost taxpayers more. I could go on.
Will Trump announce any of this out loud? Or do they keep their plans relatively quiet and work on it behind the scenes. I’ll be listening for this most of all.
Does He “Make Any News” About the Separation of Powers?
These speeches are a mix of “look how great I’ve been” and “look how great I’m going to be.” Something new is always announced.
I’ll be watching for anything new about executive orders, the scope of executive branch powers, or the court cases that have reigned in some of Trump’s early actions.
Remember, the Supreme Court Justices will have front row seats tonight, and Trump loves a powerful audience. Will he make any claims about the scope of his executive powers? Will he make any threats about the limitations of judicial branch powers or about ignoring court orders he disagrees with?
Doing so would be extraordinary, but with the first cases testing whether we’re going to have a President or a King on a fast track to the Supreme Court—will he be able to resist?
We’ll know soon enough.