What to Watch for on Election Day
Over weekend I watched election protection volunteers across the country ensure that voters’ rights were protected, that poll workers are well-trained and implemented the law correctly, and that any blips in the process were caught and corrected before growing into issues that could impact a critical mass of voters.
Despite headlines, lawsuits, or what bad actors might want you to believe, the 2024 election has gone very smoothly. If you or anyone you know hasn’t voted, there should be every confidence that you’ll be able to cast a ballot and have that ballot counted.
So, what’s next?
Will we see lines, lines+tension, or lines+civil unrest?
We could see long lines in some areas on Election Day. Even though voters set records for the number of people who voted early in-person, the overall number of people voting before Election Day is down compared to 2020 because so many fewer people voted by mail. This means there are a lot of people who still need to vote tomorrow.
Lines might grow worse because we’ve also had reports across the country of electioneering and political intimidation of voters and poll workers. As poll workers have to calm voters or settle disputes, voting slows and lines grow.
We all hope none of these tense situations escalate into violence—they almost never do in American elections. If that happens, we could see a huge amount of media attention and potentially significant disruption to the process.
I can’t stress enough: everyone should feel safe going to vote. If anyone tries to prevent you from voting, call or text the Election Protection Hotline at 866-Our-Vote.
Will the media resist the urge to make mountains of mole hills?
If a candidate says a box of ballots was damaged when a pipe burst in an election office, will news organizations air that statement before verifying it? That answer will go a long way toward determining how much disinformation will spread and how legitimate the election will seem to the public.
Similarly, networks need to contextualize the issues they report. If ballots actually were damaged but those votes can be copied onto new ballots that machines can read, that needs to be a part of the story from the outset.
Reports about states activating the National Guard are another example. States often put the National Guard on call for major events such as elections, and activating the Guard to be prepared if something happens doesn’t mean there will be troops at polling places. This context has been missing from the reporting.
Will people accept the idea that counting votes takes time?
Taking a while to count votes is usually a good thing. It means a lot of people voted and officials are taking time to get things right. The fact that counting continues for days (or even weeks) is not a sign of fraud or anyone stealing the election, it’s a sign that the process is working. “Count Every Vote” should be your mantra.
I spoke about these issues to a group of investors and business leaders today, and they asked me “how long until we’re back to normal?” My answer was: it all depends how abnormal things get.
I just arrived in Washington, DC. The stores are boarded up, and there’s a security fence keeping everyone so far from the White House that you can barely see it. Things feel pretty far from normal, but as we say in my line of legal contingency planning “hopefully we never need any of it.”
I believe if the system is allowed to operate the way it’s set up to—without improper interference by candidates, courts, or foreign actors—then we’ll have an accurate set of results that reflects the will of the American people, whatever that may be.